Yield Curve Inversion & Recession Predictor
The spread between 10-year and 2-year Treasury bond yields has preceded every US recession since 1980. We track that signal — along with the full Treasury yield curve shape.
Latest Bond Market Readings
| Indicator | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 10Y Treasury yield | 4.24 % | Long end |
| 2Y Treasury yield | 3.72 % | Short end |
| 10Y − 2Y spread | +0.52 pp | Normal |
| Yield curve inverted? | No | Un-inverted since Q4 2024 |
How Does the Yield Curve Predict Recession?
Normally, investors demand a term premium for lending over a longer horizon, so long-term bond yields exceed short-term yields. When the market expects the Fed to cut rates aggressively — usually because a recession is approaching — long yields fall below short yields and the curve inverts.
Historical Track Record
Every US recession since 1980 has been preceded by a 10Y-2Y inversion. The lag from inversion to recession has ranged from roughly 6 to 24 months.
Caveats
No indicator is perfect. Combine yield curve signals with labour market stats (the Sahm rule), GDP growth trends and inflation data for a fuller picture. Visual snapshots are in the chart gallery. Data sourcing and project context are on the About page.